According to a white paper published by Cisco, global IP traffic will grow 37% every year through 2011.

Cisco said that consumer IP traffic will surpass business IP traffic in 2008, surpassing 17 exabytes per month by 2011. The paper says that delivering “cable and IPTV video-on-demand content” will grow the fastest, surpassing consumer internet traffic.

I’m not sure how Cisco is figuring this since IPTV today is delivered over privately managed networks, not the public Internet. Do they expect IPTV to travel over the Internet in the future? Or are they using IPTV when they mean Internet video?

Just trying to understand what everyone means by IPTV is getting harder every day. The standard definition for IPTV is essentially Telco TV, or broadcast TV delivered over privately, managed networks like DSL or Fiber to the node or Fiber to the home.  Here in the U.S. that means projects like AT&T’s U-Verse and Verizon’s FiOSTV.

Cisco’s report was based on its own estimates, as well as projections from10 market research companies.

Anyway, some other tidbits from the paper:

• Internet video and downloads will grow from 9% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2006 to 30% in 2011.
• Internet traffic is growing fastest in developing markets, followed closely by Asia-Pacific.
• Internet video-to-TV will increase by more than a factor of 10 from 2007 to 2011.
• Internet video-to-PC will increase by a factor of four. Internet video-to-TV will exceed Internet video-to-PC by 2009, the Cisco study forecasts.

Bonus: Download the Cisco White Paper here. (PDF)

In a follow-up to a previous post about Vint Cerf, I wanted to talk a little about a video I found on ValleyWag (and hosted on YouTube, naturally).

In this clip, Cerf talks more about delivering TV via IP (since he is one of the inventors of IP). He says that providers can deliver content delayed, which customers can watch later. Or they can get it faster than real-time.

ValleyWag says:

According to him, it would then be possible to serve content faster than real-time — it would take 16 seconds to download an hour’s worth of video on a 1 gigabit-per-second connection — which would eliminate strain on service providers and placate consumers seeking videos without jagged images and distorted sound. Or we could all just use BitTorrent.

Essentially, Cerf says that the Internet can be used as a distribution method or channel to deliver TV, much like Telecom operators are using closed IP networks to deliver networks around the world. And why not? I agree with Vint Cerf. Delivering TV via traditional networks just isn’t flexible enough nor can you get the interactivity that’s possible with IP delivery.

Since IPTV is more popular in Europe and Asia, people outside the U.S. are seeing the value to IP delivery. But most customers don’t even understand the difference. And that’s the way it should be. The delivery mechanism can be transparent, while providing added interactivity, new ways of watching and navigating TV and optimizing advertising. That’s what the dream of IPTV is all about.

A story from the AP called “New Web sites aim for TV experience” gives a rundown of some of the major companies looking to compete with TV. It’s a pretty basic article targeted at those who are new to Internet video, but I just wanted to pull out some tidbits. Like slogans of three new companies, Joost, Babelgum and Veoh:

• Joost: “The new way of watching TV”
• Babelgum: “TV experience, Internet substance.”
• Veoh: “VeohTV makes watching Internet as simple as watching television”

The article talks about how people are not ready to watch long-form video online. But it fails to note the “lean forward” aspect of watching TV over the Internet. That’s why PCs are better suited for short form video.

And people are getting accustomed to interacting with their computers differently, like doing work or checking e-mail. Watching videos isn’t something people sit down in front of their computers and expect to do for two hours.

Another good tidbit:

A poll conducted last September by The Associated Press and Time Warner Inc.’s AOL found that only one in five online video viewers have watched or downloaded a full-length movie or TV show.

Yesterday, NBC Universal unveiled its online video venture with News Corp., called Hulu.com. It got lots of press everywhere and they’re even keynoting the next Streaming Media show. Today, NBC Universal said it was pulling its video content from iTunes so they can put it into Hulu instead.

Today’s New York Times said that NBC Universal wants more control over pricing and packaging of its TV content. From the Times:

“The media conglomerate — which is the No. 1 supplier of digital video to Apple’s online store, accounting for about 40 percent of downloads — notified Apple of its decision late yesterday, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity because negotiations between the companies are confidential”

I’m sure all the other iTunes content providers would like a better deal too. In July, Universal Music Group said it was pulling most of its music out of iTunes and just allowing certain content for sale. Does that mean that there will be a mass exodus from iTunes now? The New York Times says that talks between Apple and NBC Universal are still ongoing. Over at All Things Digital, they say NBC may be just playing hardball.

But I still have questions about Hulu. Will it be a free ad-supported, user-generated site like YouTube? Or is it going after the more mature “pay for play” iTunes market? 

Not much is known, so it’s wait and see about Hulu.

Technorati Tags: Hulu, NBC, YouTube, iTunes, Apple, NBC Universal

IBM released results of a survey into the habits of consumers around the world and found that people are using the Internet more and watching less TV. Nineteen percent said they spend 6 hours or more per day using the Internet versus 9% who spent the same time watching TV.

The survey looked at other digital media usage, inculding mobile TV, online video, music and DVRs.  (I’ll be posting data on DVRs over at my sister blog, DVR Bulletin soon.) Some data highlights:

• 66 percent reported viewing between one to four hours of TV per day, versus 60 percent who reported the same levels of personal Internet usage.
• 81 percent of consumers said they’ve watched or want to watch PC video
• 42 percent said they’ve watched or want to watch mobile video
• 23 percent reported using a portable music service
• 7 percent reported having a video content subscription for their mobile phones
• 11 percent reported subscribing to a PC-based music service
• 18 percent reported an online newspaper subscription

People are increasingly turning to the Internet, where they have a variety of media, such as music, photos, movies and games and watching less TV. Among young consumers, TV is taking a back seat, said Saul Berman, IBM Media & Entertainment Strategy and Change practice leader.

“Just as the ‘Kool Kids’ and ‘Gadgetiers’* have replaced traditional land-lines with mobile communications, cable and satellite TV subscriptions risk a similar fate of being replaced as the primary source of content access.”

In Germany, users that have watched mobile video, 23 percent prefer to view user generated content, and 21 percent prefer video trailers or promotions.

Overall, nothing most of us don’t already know, but it’s nice to have the numbers to back it up and put in our PowerPoint slides and business plans.

* Marketers love to invent ridiculous words like “Gadgetiers” and “Kool Kids” to describe various groups, much like people use “Millenials”, “Generation X” and “Generation Y” to describe certain demographic segments. IBM says “Gadgetiers” are drawn to the latest devices and are interested in participating and controlling the time and place of their media experiences; while “Kool Kids” prefer interactive content and rely heavily on content sharing and social interaction. Enough fine print.

[Via Monsters and Critics and NewTeevee]

Bonus: Here’s a direct link to the IBM study on U.S. consumers. There are also individual reports for the U.K., Japan, Germany and Australia.

Bonus #2. IBM walked around the street with a video camera and asked kids whether they prefer TV or the Internet and the results won’t surprise you.

Technorati Tags: IBM, research, YouTube, online music, mobile TV, mobile video, Internet video