According to research firm Pike and Fischer, over 100 million households will pay for HDTV by 2012. That’s about 47 million homes.

At the end of 2007, there were 17 million homes with HD service, so that’s a big growth.
The demand for HD will generate up to $2.6 billion in annual revenue for TV providers by the end of 2012.

It happens every year. Consumer buy big screen TVs in time for the Super Bowl. They are also well-known for returning TVs right after the Super Bowl is over.

The Consumer Electronics Association said that Super Bowl XLII is expected to drive sales of approximately 2.4 million HDTVs, according to a survey they conducted. The organization says that the Super Bowl has already generated $2.2 billion in HDTV sales this year alone.

In fact, Fox News was saying that people may buy flat-screen TVs now that the stimulus package is going through Congress right now. They pointed out that taxpayers will get back about $1,200, which is enough for a good-sized flat screen HDTV set.

Additionally, Super Bowl viewers are likely to go on the Internet after the game. The survey found that 57% of HDTV owners will go online after the game to view memorable moments or television commercials.

A press release by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) said that over 50% of U.S. households own a digital television (DTV). The group predicts that TV manufacturers will post 11% revenue growth, to over $25 billion, from sales of digital televisions in 2007. CEA also is predicting 13% of revenue and 17% unit sales growth for digital television in 2008.

Now keep in mind DTV does not necessarily mean HDTV. DTV, according to the FCC, just means the ability to view digital programming via a built in or external digital tuner.

Nevertheless, consumers in the U.S. are definitely buying more HDTV sets–or at least are planning on buying them in 2008. The Financial Times writes:

“According to research published last month by The Diffusion Group, almost a third of non-HDTV households in the US are interested in purchasing a new HDTV set in the next six months.”

With the analog switch-off happening in Feb. 2009, it’s a fair bet to say that 2008 will see a huge growth in DTV sets.

For anyone using a DVR and HD, it’s the classic dilemma: Do you use your cable or satellite provider’s DVR box or buy a Tivo? It’s like “Sophie’s Choice”.

On one hand, your cable provider offers a low cost DVR that works with HD content for just a few dollars a month–Comcast charges me about $5 per month. You also get just one box, rather than having to use a cable set-top and a separate DVR. Plus cable companies don’t charge you for buying the box; you usually rent the box for just a few dollars a month.

Going with Tivo means, higher initial cost of buying the HD DVR (about $600 to $800 for a Series 3 DVR).  It also means higher monthly costs–I pay about $20 per month for the Tivo service.

So lots of people are going through these issues when they upgrade to an HDTV and HD service. One blogger called “Dog Monster” wrote about this dilemma after deciding to go with a Comcast DVR, rather than buy an HD Tivo DVR.  And he writes that his frustrations with the Comcast DVR happened in less than one day of using it. He writes: “I loved watching television until I got my cablebox DVR.”

He goes on to list his 20 reasons why he decided to dump Comcast’s DVR and buy a new Tivo Series 3 box. Here’s the quick list:

1. Comcast DVR has no predictive fast-forward.
2. No Start From Beginning When Reaching the End of a Recording.
3. Not Recording Shows.
4. Searching for Shows is Clunky and Slow.
5. Finding Your Favorites Shows is Difficult.
6. The Cable Box Doesn’t Show the Time When Recording.
7. No Way of Knowing if A Show is Being Recorded.
8. Button Lag.
9. No Sound Effects like Tivo.
10. Not Intuitive Interface.
11. No Recommendations.
12. Recording Same Episode Multiple Times.
13. Doesn’t Know What Shows Are New.
14. Cannot Change Recording Quality.
15. Not Being Able to Exit the Play Timeline.
16. Doesn’t Warn About Conflicting Recordings.
17. Accidentally Recording SD Channel Rather than HD.
18. Comcast Doesn’t Group Shows Together Like Tivo.
19. Remote Control Is Not Easy to Use.
20. No Scheduling Shows Online.

Along with the points made here, I really miss the integration with the Internet for downloading photos, and other content (like RocketBoom) and the ability to save files on my computer with Tivo Desktop software. I must admit I am hitting my breaking point with Comcast’s DVR. I’ve been using it for about two months now (alongside my Series 2 Tivo for SD recordings) and have been very frustrated with it as well. Since I have multiple inputs on my HDTV set, I have both my Comcast DVR connected to watch and record HD content, and my Tivo for SD recordings and all my previously recorded shows.

But switching between the two is getting tedious. I want HD recording and Comcast’s DVR just isn’t giving me what I want out of an HD DVR.

It’s probably just a matter of time before I buy an HD Tivo and use it 100% of the time and drop Comcast’s DVR.

Technorati Tags: Tivo, Comcast, HD DVR, DVR, Comcast DVR, Series 2 Tivo

The digital TV transition occurs on February 17th, 2009. That’s just over a year from today. But many people are getting concerned that consumers just aren’t ready for the analog-to-digital transition.

In recent weeks, there have been reports that the FCC was considering pushing back the digital transition. However, the FCC chief said at CES that the February 2009 date was a “hard deadline” and that postponing the date would “dis-incentivize” the industry.

The CEO for Best Buy said that he was “very nervous” about being able to supply consumers with digital TV converter boxes. Consumers that don’t upgrade to a new digital TV set will have to use these converter boxes in order to continue to watch TV. That’s because broadcasters will be shutting off their analog transmissions and going digital.

In December 2007, a study by the Government Accounting Office said that the U.S. has no real comprehensive plan for preparing viewers for the transition.

“Despite efforts by the public and private sectors and ongoing coordination, we found that no comprehensive plan for the transition exists,” the GAO said.

If you’re stuck with an old-fashioned TV set with a regular antenna (no cable or satellite) you should either upgrade to a new digital set or buy a digital converter box.

However, not everyone thinks that supply of the boxes will ready in 13 months.

“I think it’s one of the biggest risks our industry has,” [Best Buy's] vice chairman and CEO Brad Anderson told an industry audience at the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Nielsen says that about 14.3 million households still are using over-the-air television. So this is either a golden opportunity for TV providers like cable, telecom and satellite companies, or for digital TV manufacturers.

Another problem is customer education.  Many people are still confused about what the digital transition means and if they’ll still be able to watch TV.

Major retailers say that boxes will be on sale soon, costing between $40 and $70.

Additionally, National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) is offering $40 coupons to households that own analog sets and want to buy a digital-analog converter box.

Interested in getting a coupon? Visit www.dtv2009.gov and apply online.

Technorati Tags: NTIA, digital TV, digital transition, DTV, HDTV, analog to digital, FCC, digital TV transition